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The case against treating the race to RSI as a prisoner’s dilemma

In a reply, a commenter argues that Anthropic has not met the bar for continuing to race toward RSI given the possibility of mass casualties or extinction.

4 Sources, 12d ago, first seen 12d ago

TLDR

A commenter doubts that racing toward RSI is a prisoner’s dilemma and argues that unilateral restraint could be rational and moral. They say Anthropic has not justified continuing despite the possible risks, but add that simply asking it to slow or stop is not a plan: competitive pressures also need to be addressed.

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4 Sources, first seen 12d ago

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4 Sources, first seen 12d ago

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4 Sources

Nathan Calvin@_NathanCalvinI'm not convinced that racing to RSI is actually a prisoners dilemma - I think it might actually just be insane and hubristic in the way it naively appears to normal people such that additional unilateral restraint is in fact rational and moral. The bar for believing your activities in the not too distant future might cause mass casualties or extinction but that you should proceed anyway should be very high, and I don't think Anthropic has met that bar (I think some of the cold war arms races were also not individually rational either!). I was more sympathetic to them continuing to race at earlier times but as we are getting closer it just seems harder and harder to justify. Anyway I obviously believe that "they should just slow or stop unilaterally" is not a plan - we need to address competitive dynamics and not make leave this up to their choice. But I do think when Dario says ~"I agree with Jacob Coxon that the thing I am doing is gambling with everyones lives" the appropriate reaction is not "ah that makes sense, classic arms race" its "WTF why are you doing that."12d
David Robinson@dgrobinson💯 "I'm not convinced that racing to RSI is actually a prisoners dilemma - I think it might actually just be insane and hubristic in the way it naively appears to normal people such that additional unilateral restraint is in fact rational and moral."12d
Jason Wolfe@w01feRT @dgrobinson: 💯 "I'm not convinced that racing to RSI is actually a prisoners dilemma - I think it might actually just be insane and hubr…12d
Toby Ord@tobyordoxfordRT @_NathanCalvin: @ericneyman I'm not convinced that racing to RSI is actually a prisoners dilemma - I think it might actually just be ins…11d
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    Nathan CalvinAnthropic

    4 Sources

    Nathan Calvin@_NathanCalvinI'm not convinced that racing to RSI is actually a prisoners dilemma - I think it might actually just be insane and hubristic in the way it naively appears to normal people such that additional unilateral restraint is in fact rational and moral. The bar for believing your activities in the not too distant future might cause mass casualties or extinction but that you should proceed anyway should be very high, and I don't think Anthropic has met that bar (I think some of the cold war arms races were also not individually rational either!). I was more sympathetic to them continuing to race at earlier times but as we are getting closer it just seems harder and harder to justify. Anyway I obviously believe that "they should just slow or stop unilaterally" is not a plan - we need to address competitive dynamics and not make leave this up to their choice. But I do think when Dario says ~"I agree with Jacob Coxon that the thing I am doing is gambling with everyones lives" the appropriate reaction is not "ah that makes sense, classic arms race" its "WTF why are you doing that."12d
    David Robinson@dgrobinson💯 "I'm not convinced that racing to RSI is actually a prisoners dilemma - I think it might actually just be insane and hubristic in the way it naively appears to normal people such that additional unilateral restraint is in fact rational and moral."12d
    Jason Wolfe@w01feRT @dgrobinson: 💯 "I'm not convinced that racing to RSI is actually a prisoners dilemma - I think it might actually just be insane and hubr…12d
    Toby Ord@tobyordoxfordRT @_NathanCalvin: @ericneyman I'm not convinced that racing to RSI is actually a prisoners dilemma - I think it might actually just be ins…11d
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