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Doubts about the Fed's rate hike as 2026 recession odds reportedly hit 5%

ZeroHedge argues the hike won't fix the inflation it targets. Separately, Kalshi says recession odds for 2026 fell to 5%, an all-time low.

zerohedgeZE
KalshiKA
2 Sources, 20d ago, first seen 20d ago

TLDR

ZeroHedge argues that the Fed's rate hike won't address the inflation it targets, framing the problem this way: “The Fed can raise the price of money. It cannot lower the price of a war.” Separately, Kalshi said on September 20 that odds of a recession in 2026 had fallen to 5%, which it called an all-time low.

Combined views

1.5M

2 Sources, first seen 20d ago

2.3K likes258 comments113 saves318 reposts

Combined views

1.5M

2 Sources, first seen 20d ago

2.3K likes258 comments113 saves318 reposts

Sentiment

Positive18.8%81.2%Negative

Summary

Many accounts disputed claims of record-low recession odds and ineffective Fed rate hikes, arguing the recession is already here due to money printing and energy shocks, while some praised the clear analysis.

Based on 177 sentiment-bearing replies from 157 accounts across 2 conversations.

Sentiment

Positive18.8%81.2%Negative

Summary

Many accounts disputed claims of record-low recession odds and ineffective Fed rate hikes, arguing the recession is already here due to money printing and energy shocks, while some praised the clear analysis.

Based on 177 sentiment-bearing replies from 157 accounts across 2 conversations.

Related

Trump says inflation will be ‘eradicated’ after the war with Iran ends

ZeroHedge and WatcherGuru relayed the president’s prediction on September 28. WatcherGuru described it as inflation being “completely eliminated.”

Crude oil reportedly hits 11-day low amid hopes for Iran war diplomacy

ZeroHedge, citing Reuters, reported Brent at $101.75 a barrel, down 2%, on September 21. A separate post citing AAA put diesel above $6.50 a gallon and regular gas near $4.50.

Stock-market rally expectations and diesel-price risks

Kalshi relayed Tom Lee’s view that his predicted stock-market rally is merely delayed. A separate post argues that sustained high diesel prices pose a bigger risk to stock returns than short spikes.

2 Sources

zerohedge@zerohedgeThe Fed Rate-Hike Won't Fix The Inflation It Targets https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-rate-hike-wont-fix-inflation-it-targets20d
Kalshi@KalshiBREAKING: Odds of a recession this year plummet to 5% — an all-time low20d
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    Kalshizerohedge

    2 Sources

    zerohedge@zerohedgeThe Fed Rate-Hike Won't Fix The Inflation It Targets https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-rate-hike-wont-fix-inflation-it-targets20d
    Kalshi@KalshiBREAKING: Odds of a recession this year plummet to 5% — an all-time low20d
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