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Fed reportedly raises rates by a quarter point amid oil-driven inflation

A user argues that higher borrowing costs cannot fix war-related oil supply disruptions, citing comments attributed to JPMorgan about its inability to predict oil prices.

Bull TheoryBT
Kripto MessiKM
2 Sources, 22d ago, first seen 22d ago

TLDR

A September 18, 2026 post says the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points—a quarter percentage point—that week to counter high inflation. The author quotes JPMorgan as saying “we simply don't know how to model the endgame” of the Iran war and argues that higher borrowing costs cannot fix disruptions to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. If oil prices fall as the war eases, the author warns, households and businesses could still be left facing higher borrowing costs.

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81.9K

2 Sources, first seen 22d ago

693 likes47 comments60 saves72 reposts

Combined views

81.9K

2 Sources, first seen 22d ago

693 likes47 comments60 saves72 reposts

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2 Sources

Bull Theory@BullTheoryio🚨 DID THE FED JUST RAISE RATES TO FIGHT SOMETHING IT CAN'T EVEN CONTROL? The Fed hiked rates by 25bps this week, and Warsh directly pointed to inflation being too high, largely fed by oil and energy prices. But JPMorgan just admitted to something. The world's most valuable bank by says it can no longer predict where oil goes from here, writing "we simply don't know how to model the endgame" of the Iran war. That's the same oil that's driving a big chunk of the inflation the Fed just hiked rates to fight. Now the problem: A rate hike is a demand side tool. It works by making borrowing more expensive, so people and businesses spend less. It does nothing to fix a supply shock like a war disrupting oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz. If oil is genuinely unpredictable right now, even to the bank that tracks it for a living, then the inflation number the Fed is reacting to is also unpredictable. Oil could stay above $100, or a resolution to the war could crash it by 20-25% within hours. Either way, the Fed just locked in a rate hike, and possibly one more by year end based on its own forecast, against a moving target nobody can actually forecast right now. If oil drops once the war eases, the Fed will have made borrowing more expensive for citizens and businesses who had nothing to do with the actual problem it was trying to fix in the first place.22d
Kripto Messi@KriptomessiPiyasalar Fed sonrası, beklentim dahilinde biraz toparlandı. Önümüzde çeyrek kapanışı var. Yükselişin devam etmesi için ay sonuna doğru,aşılması gereken direnç seviyeleri ve güncel onchain verileri kritik rol oynayacak. Ay kapanışına doğru geniş kapsamlı bir analiz paylaşacağım.22d
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    JPMorganWarsh

    2 Sources

    Bull Theory@BullTheoryio🚨 DID THE FED JUST RAISE RATES TO FIGHT SOMETHING IT CAN'T EVEN CONTROL? The Fed hiked rates by 25bps this week, and Warsh directly pointed to inflation being too high, largely fed by oil and energy prices. But JPMorgan just admitted to something. The world's most valuable bank by says it can no longer predict where oil goes from here, writing "we simply don't know how to model the endgame" of the Iran war. That's the same oil that's driving a big chunk of the inflation the Fed just hiked rates to fight. Now the problem: A rate hike is a demand side tool. It works by making borrowing more expensive, so people and businesses spend less. It does nothing to fix a supply shock like a war disrupting oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz. If oil is genuinely unpredictable right now, even to the bank that tracks it for a living, then the inflation number the Fed is reacting to is also unpredictable. Oil could stay above $100, or a resolution to the war could crash it by 20-25% within hours. Either way, the Fed just locked in a rate hike, and possibly one more by year end based on its own forecast, against a moving target nobody can actually forecast right now. If oil drops once the war eases, the Fed will have made borrowing more expensive for citizens and businesses who had nothing to do with the actual problem it was trying to fix in the first place.22d
    Kripto Messi@KriptomessiPiyasalar Fed sonrası, beklentim dahilinde biraz toparlandı. Önümüzde çeyrek kapanışı var. Yükselişin devam etmesi için ay sonuna doğru,aşılması gereken direnç seviyeleri ve güncel onchain verileri kritik rol oynayacak. Ay kapanışına doğru geniş kapsamlı bir analiz paylaşacağım.22d
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