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Brent reportedly nears $108 as October Fed rate-hike expectations climb

A September 28 post said Brent crude pushed toward $108 a barrel as hopes for US-Iran progress faded. It put the market-priced chance of an October Fed hike at roughly 68%, up from 17.7% a month earlier. Another commenter argued that repeated Iran headlines have dulled market reactions.

The Wolf Of All StreetsTW
doug funnieDF
2 Sources, 11d ago, first seen 11d ago

TLDR

A September 28 post said Brent crude pushed toward $108 a barrel, while US 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields touched their highest levels since 2007 and 2004, respectively. It reported Bitcoin below $83,000 as stocks and gold fell, and linked those moves to concerns that interest rates could stay higher for longer. Another commenter argued that repeated, sometimes reversed headlines about US-Iran negotiations have made markets less responsive to both escalation and apparent progress.

Combined views

48K

2 Sources, first seen 11d ago

325 likes32 comments20 saves9 reposts

Combined views

48K

2 Sources, first seen 11d ago

325 likes32 comments20 saves9 reposts

Sentiment

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No sentiment analysis available yet.

Sentiment

Positive——Negative

Summary

Not enough discussion yet.

No sentiment analysis available yet.

2 Sources

The Wolf Of All Streets@scottmelkerThe entire market is trading the same story again. Oil is rising, inflation fears are returning, and interest rates are moving higher. Brent crude pushed toward $108 a barrel today as hopes for progress between the US and Iran faded. At the same time, the US 10-year Treasury yield touched its highest level since 2007, while the 30-year hit its highest since 2004. Markets are now pricing roughly a 68% chance of another Fed rate hike in October. That was just 17.7% one month ago. $BTC fell below $83,000, stocks moved lower and gold dropped sharply as investors adjusted to the possibility that rates stay higher for longer. The chain is pretty straightforward. Higher oil, more inflation pressure, more Fed hikes, higher Treasury yields, tighter financial conditions. And tighter financial conditions are rarely friendly to risk assets. This is bigger than Bitcoin dropping a few percent today. The market is once again being forced to question how much liquidity will actually be available if inflation remains stubborn and the Fed keeps tightening. Wednesday’s PCE inflation report and Friday’s jobs report now matter even more. Crypto is trading macro again.11d
doug funnie@cryptoklotzregarding BTC, and headlines around the iran thing there's very clearly (for many months) now a "boy who cried wolf" effect regarding the market reacting: the market doesn't dump on news about missiles, israel goofing off, hormuz getting re-mined, whatever. the s&p is up way, way higher than it was after its initial 10% pullback last spring but this cuts both ways the below tweet, under any other admin, would be like "ok wow i think that's a wrap" but we've seen some permutation of "they're making progress on negotiations" what, conservatively, like twenty or thirty times now? going back 6 months? probably on a near-weekly cadence? i don't even know what it's going to take for us to fully price the conflict out in terms of headlines. we've even had "we have a deal!" stuff, that gets reversed within hours or days, or denied by the other side11d
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    The Wolf Of All Streets@scottmelkerThe entire market is trading the same story again. Oil is rising, inflation fears are returning, and interest rates are moving higher. Brent crude pushed toward $108 a barrel today as hopes for progress between the US and Iran faded. At the same time, the US 10-year Treasury yield touched its highest level since 2007, while the 30-year hit its highest since 2004. Markets are now pricing roughly a 68% chance of another Fed rate hike in October. That was just 17.7% one month ago. $BTC fell below $83,000, stocks moved lower and gold dropped sharply as investors adjusted to the possibility that rates stay higher for longer. The chain is pretty straightforward. Higher oil, more inflation pressure, more Fed hikes, higher Treasury yields, tighter financial conditions. And tighter financial conditions are rarely friendly to risk assets. This is bigger than Bitcoin dropping a few percent today. The market is once again being forced to question how much liquidity will actually be available if inflation remains stubborn and the Fed keeps tightening. Wednesday’s PCE inflation report and Friday’s jobs report now matter even more. Crypto is trading macro again.11d
    doug funnie@cryptoklotzregarding BTC, and headlines around the iran thing there's very clearly (for many months) now a "boy who cried wolf" effect regarding the market reacting: the market doesn't dump on news about missiles, israel goofing off, hormuz getting re-mined, whatever. the s&p is up way, way higher than it was after its initial 10% pullback last spring but this cuts both ways the below tweet, under any other admin, would be like "ok wow i think that's a wrap" but we've seen some permutation of "they're making progress on negotiations" what, conservatively, like twenty or thirty times now? going back 6 months? probably on a near-weekly cadence? i don't even know what it's going to take for us to fully price the conflict out in terms of headlines. we've even had "we have a deal!" stuff, that gets reversed within hours or days, or denied by the other side11d
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