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Fed expected to deliver first rate hike since July 2023 on September 16, 2026

The Kobeissi Letter puts market odds of a hike at 93%. A separate post says the expected quarter-point increase would take rates to 3.75%–4.00%.

The Kobeissi LetterTK
NoLimitNO
*Walter Bloomberg*B
3 Sources, 24d ago, first seen 24d ago

TLDR

Ahead of the September 16, 2026 decision, The Kobeissi Letter says markets see a 93% chance of the Fed’s first rate hike since July 2023. A separate post puts the expected increase at a quarter point, to 3.75%–4.00%, with the decision due at 2 p.m. ET. Looking further ahead, another post says markets expect four quarter-point hikes over the next year. It cites Reuters Breakingviews’ argument that those expectations may be too high: underlying inflation remains relatively contained, and expensive energy could ultimately weaken growth rather than trigger persistent inflation.

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966.3K

3 Sources, first seen 24d ago

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Combined views

966.3K

3 Sources, first seen 24d ago

6.4K likes270 comments327 saves484 reposts

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Sentiment

Positive——Negative

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3 Sources

The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetterIt's officially Fed day. Markets now see a 93% chance that the Fed will announce its first rate hike since July 2023 today. In data going back to 2008, whenever expectations of a hike have been this high, the Fed has invariably delivered one. If the Fed decided to leave interest rates unchanged today, it would mark the biggest dovish surprise at a scheduled policy meeting since 1994. However, it's a particularly unusual time right now. Fed Chair Warsh was appointed by President Trump just months ago with the expectation that he would CUT rates. Now, markets expect Warsh's first change to the Fed Funds Rate to be a hike. We expect a highly eventful day. Turn on our post notifications at @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as the Fed decision is announced.24d
NoLimit@NoLimitGainsBREAKING: The Fed’s first rate hike since July 2023 could arrive today. Markets are pricing in roughly a 93% chance of a quarter-point increase, taking rates to 3.75%–4.00%. Annual inflation is still 3.4%, with prices excluding food and energy rising 0.3% in August alone. The decision comes at 2 p.m. ET. Federal Reserve With a hike this widely expected, I’m watching whether officials signal more increases ahead. That could make life much harder for companies with big debts coming due… I’ll keep you updated, turn on notifications this is very important.24d
*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaoneMARKETS MAY BE PRICING TOO MANY RATE HIKES Markets now expect four 25bp Fed hikes over the next year, taking rates to roughly 4.6%, as surging energy prices revive inflation fears. Traders also see the ECB reaching 3.25% and BoE 4.75%. Reuters Breakingviews argues expectations may have gone too far, as underlying inflation remains relatively contained and expensive energy could ultimately weaken growth rather than trigger persistent inflation.24d
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    3 Sources

    The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetterIt's officially Fed day. Markets now see a 93% chance that the Fed will announce its first rate hike since July 2023 today. In data going back to 2008, whenever expectations of a hike have been this high, the Fed has invariably delivered one. If the Fed decided to leave interest rates unchanged today, it would mark the biggest dovish surprise at a scheduled policy meeting since 1994. However, it's a particularly unusual time right now. Fed Chair Warsh was appointed by President Trump just months ago with the expectation that he would CUT rates. Now, markets expect Warsh's first change to the Fed Funds Rate to be a hike. We expect a highly eventful day. Turn on our post notifications at @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as the Fed decision is announced.24d
    NoLimit@NoLimitGainsBREAKING: The Fed’s first rate hike since July 2023 could arrive today. Markets are pricing in roughly a 93% chance of a quarter-point increase, taking rates to 3.75%–4.00%. Annual inflation is still 3.4%, with prices excluding food and energy rising 0.3% in August alone. The decision comes at 2 p.m. ET. Federal Reserve With a hike this widely expected, I’m watching whether officials signal more increases ahead. That could make life much harder for companies with big debts coming due… I’ll keep you updated, turn on notifications this is very important.24d
    *Walter Bloomberg@DeItaoneMARKETS MAY BE PRICING TOO MANY RATE HIKES Markets now expect four 25bp Fed hikes over the next year, taking rates to roughly 4.6%, as surging energy prices revive inflation fears. Traders also see the ECB reaching 3.25% and BoE 4.75%. Reuters Breakingviews argues expectations may have gone too far, as underlying inflation remains relatively contained and expensive energy could ultimately weaken growth rather than trigger persistent inflation.24d
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