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GPT-6 Astra estimated at 4.2T@120B, with around 112 layers

A user estimates that GPT-6 Astra loops half its layers once. They say their simulation most often landed at 4.5–4.6T, but they chose a lower central estimate because they tend to overestimate model sizes.

6 Sources, 12d ago, first seen 12d ago

TLDR

A user puts their central GPT-6 Astra estimate at 4.2T@120B and around 112 layers, with 50% of its layers looped once. They say their simulation most often returned 4.5–4.6T, but they adjusted lower because they tend to overestimate model sizes. They also say they have evidence that GPT-6 Sol and Luna, and Opus 5.5, are not looped language models.

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6 Sources, first seen 12d ago

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6 Sources, first seen 12d ago

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6 Sources

Lisan al Gaib@scaling01and I didn't it unlikely to be smaller than 3T and larger than 6T between 4-5T makes a lot of sense and 4.5-4.6T was actually the most common outcome of my simulation but I decided to go a bit lower because I have a habit of overestimating model sizes :P12d
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    GPT-6 AstraLisan al Gaib

    6 Sources

    Lisan al Gaib@scaling01and I didn't it unlikely to be smaller than 3T and larger than 6T between 4-5T makes a lot of sense and 4.5-4.6T was actually the most common outcome of my simulation but I decided to go a bit lower because I have a habit of overestimating model sizes :P12d
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