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OpenAI's annualized revenue reportedly about $20 billion below what it had signaled

FT reports OpenAI told investors annualized revenue was approaching $50 billion in September, versus a widely reported $70 billion.

Financial TimesFT
CNBCCN
Luke GromenLG
41 Sources, 2d ago, first seen 2d ago

TLDR

The Financial Times reports that financial documents shared with investors put OpenAI's annualized revenue about $20 billion below what the company had previously signaled. FT says OpenAI recently told investors the figure was approaching $50 billion in September, compared with the $70 billion that had been widely reported. The paper says the gap is likely to damp optimism about growth in AI demand.

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41 Sources, first seen 2d ago

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Combined views

2.6M

41 Sources, first seen 2d ago

42.9K likes2.2K comments4.6K saves7.9K reposts

The new figure was approaching $50 billion

OpenAI recently told investors its annualized revenue was approaching $50 billion at the end of September, according to financial documents reviewed by the Financial Times. That was about $20 billion below the figure the FT and other outlets had reported late last month using information provided to investors.

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The numbers are private-company run-rate measures rather than regularly disclosed public financial results. The FT said OpenAI declined to comment.

The lower figure does not mean OpenAI lost $20 billion in sales. The FT said the gap arose when investors tried to compare OpenAI directly with Anthropic, even though the two companies calculate annualized revenue differently.

Different methods produced different comparisons

Anthropic includes sales made through cloud partners such as Amazon Web Services and Google Cloud, while OpenAI does not include partner-channel sales in its own annualized revenue figure, according to the FT. Investors tried to “gross up” OpenAI's number to create a like-for-like comparison.

Those efforts produced reports that OpenAI's annualized revenue was around $40 billion in July. OpenAI later told backers that the figure had risen more than 70% since July, contributing to reports of a roughly $70 billion September run rate. The newer investor presentation instead showed close to $30 billion for July and a figure approaching $50 billion at the end of September.

Even at the lower level, the FT said the September figure represented rapid growth since the summer. The measure matters to investors because OpenAI has committed to spending hundreds of billions of dollars on computing power and infrastructure while competing with Anthropic, Meta, Google and other AI developers.

AI-linked stocks fell after the report

Technology shares extended earlier losses Thursday after the report. The FT said the Nasdaq 100 was down 1.7%, Nvidia fell 2.9%, Oracle dropped nearly 6% and Micron declined 4%.

MarketWatch also reported that the Nasdaq Composite hit its session low following the FT report, while the PHLX Semiconductor Index sank and shares of Nvidia and other chipmakers turned lower. Oracle, which has made large commitments tied to its OpenAI relationship, also struggled.

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cnbc.com

Nvidia, Oracle, other AI stocks sink on OpenAI revenue report

Bloomberg

OpenAI’s Revenue Run Rate Nears $50 Billion, Less Than Reported

Sentiment

Positive——Negative

Summary

Not enough discussion yet.

No sentiment analysis available yet.

Useful Links

cnbc.com

Nvidia, Oracle, other AI stocks sink on OpenAI revenue report

Bloomberg

OpenAI’s Revenue Run Rate Nears $50 Billion, Less Than Reported

Useful Links

cnbc.com

Nvidia, Oracle, other AI stocks sink on OpenAI revenue report

Bloomberg

OpenAI’s Revenue Run Rate Nears $50 Billion, Less Than Reported

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43 Sources

Financial TimesOpenAI annualised revenues $20bn less than previously signalled2d
MarketWatchNasdaq touches session lows after FT report about disappointing OpenAI revenue1d
Financial Times@FTFT Exclusive: The AI group's annualised revenue is about $20bn less than the company has previously signalled, according to financial documents shared with investors, a massive gap likely to damp optimism about the growth of AI demand. https://ft.trib.al/krV2ZeF2d
CNBC@CNBCNvidia, Oracle, CoreWeave and other AI stocks sink on OpenAI revenue report https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/08/open-ai-revenue-nvidia-oracle-coreweave.html?taid=6ac7df4f329a7f00017770ea&utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_content=main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter2d
Luke Gromen@LukeGromenONE OF BIGGEST VARIANT PERCEPTION IN MARKETS IMO: Austerity now won't work either, because we didn't do it in 1987, 1994, 1998, 2000, or 2008 (wasn't an option in 2020 either.) Now, if we do austerity, we trigger not just recession, but debt collapse, banking system collapse, & risk hyperinflation v. gold. Here's the math: Last 3 recessions US saw deficits rise 600-1000 bps of GDP. IE austerity-driven recession would send US deficit to 13-17% of GDP. That's bad enough, but the USD would rise on US austerity... ...which means foreigners, US banks, US pensions, & US hedge funds would be FORCED by stronger USD to sell USTs (as foreigners are short $13-14t in USD-denominated debt, while stronger USD drives weaker growth worldwide)... ....that selling combined would likely add ~$1-2T to the effective deficit, or 4-7% of GDP... So austerity-driven US recession would drive US deficit to (13-17%) + (4-7%) = 17-25% of GDP, or a bigger deficit than WW2... ...into a recession, where there ARE no buyers left but the Fed (recession in a levered system de-grosses savings, it does not grow savings.) So either the Fed funds a 17-25% of GDP US deficit with freshly-printed USDs, or else rates skyrocket...in a recession. Rates skyrocketing would blow up the collateral underpinning the entire western banking system - basically 1q23 on steroids. If that happens, either the Fed does BTFP on steroids (buys the USTs with freshly printed USDs) or we get the biggest US bank run since the Great Depression and banking system collapses, or regulators do away with all bank capital regulations to avoid them taking UST losses (aka Fed QE done through the banks like in Apr-2020 w/SLR exemptions). Rates spiking would also send US govt interest expense > US receipts, which then means either the US govt nominally defaults on those USTs or prints the money just to pay the interest on the debt, which would ALSO undermine the banking system's collateral (AND is a technical definition of hyperinflation). This is why i cannot help but laugh at western investors that sell gold on rising US rates or rising US real rates with the US debt & fiscal situation as it is. I get monthly or quarterly mandate realities, but selling gold on rising US rates or reals show that consensus still does NOT understand the severity of the situation we are in yet.2d
Oguz Erkan@oguzerkanHere is the problem: If OpenAI can make this much damage to the public market as a private company, think what could happen if OpenAI and Anthropic were both public and both missed expectations? It’s time to rethink about the concentration in the AI trade.2d
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetterBREAKING: The Nasdaq 100 extends losses to -1.5% on the day as oil prices rise and OpenAI’s annualized revenue comes in $20 billion below expectations.1d
Banana3@Banana3Stocks$SPY $QQQ $MRVL $NVDA #OpenAI #Anthropic Today’s selloff is the market taking one messy revenue headline and treating it like the whole AI trade just cracked. It didn’t. The indexes heard “$20 billion light” and sprinted for the exits like someone yelled fire in a data center 🔥 🕋 OpenAI being light by about $20 billion on annualized revenue is a definition problem, not a demand problem!!!‼️ The $70 billion number that was floating around was investors trying to line them up with Anthropic, and those two don’t even count the same way 🤦‍♂️ Most don’t know this unless you know AWS like the back of your hand but Anthropic includes cloud partner sales, OpenAI doesn’t 🧐 What they actually told investors is closer to $50 billion annualized, with their book still ripping! That’s about 77% total run rate growth in the quarter and enterprise run rate up about 107%. Consumer revenue in Q3 alone was already bigger than all of 2025. That’s not a company falling apart. That’s Wall Street doing math on a napkin and then acting shocked when the napkin was wrong and then dumb ass algos running wild🧮 🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️ As I have said, this is not a one size fits all read on the buildout!!! $MRVL just had its investor day and basically told the Street it was sitting in the cheap seats ⚾️. They took FY28 revenue to $20 billion, up from the $18 billion they had out there in August, and above the roughly $18.2 billion most analysts were sitting on. Then they dropped a FY31 framework of $70 to $90 billion in revenue and $30 plus in EPS 🤯 . Custom revenue up 200% or more into FY29 🤯. Data center alone approaching about $18 billion in FY28 🤯 Matt Murphy (MRVL CEO) went on and called the guide “pragmatic, judged and achievable.” Morgan Stanley said the targets were “at least 20% higher than we had forecasted” and that management “guided up next year by about 10%.” Needham took the target to $400 from $300👀. Jefferies went to $450 from $325👀. That’s the inside plumbing of this trade talking, do you hear it??? 👂 That means Interconnect, and optics are going gangbusters 💪 Meanwhile… the indexes are panic selling because one lab’s spreadsheet had a footnote. Classic BS 🤣 We’re still early in the capex boom. And that spend is already starting to show a return because demand for compute is through the roof!!! These guys aren’t building empty buildings and hoping a customer wanders in🤦‍♂️. Capacity is the constraint. Watts, racks, optics, custom silicon. Customers are literally lined up with backlogs growing and growing 🌳 🌳 Enterprise adoption is early innings ⚾️ ⚾️. Most businesses are still poking at pilots like it’s a group project they can turn in late, they’re just figuring it out. The ones that don’t actually adopt this get left behind on cost and speed 🏃 🏃 Consumer agents? We’re not even in the first inning ⚾️!!! That stuff has barely been out for a few months. Judging a multi year infrastructure cycle off one private lab’s run rate definition is how you miss the move and then tweet about it later 📈 Not financial advice! Much love! 💜🍌🍌🍌1d
Bull Theory@BullTheoryio🚨 $500 billion wiped out from the US stock market today as reports show OpenAI's revenue is $20 billion short, raising doubts over AI spending.1d
Kalshi Finance@Kalshi_FinanceJUST IN: Over $500,000,000,000 erased from the US stock market today1d
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    43 Sources

    Financial TimesOpenAI annualised revenues $20bn less than previously signalled2d
    MarketWatchNasdaq touches session lows after FT report about disappointing OpenAI revenue1d
    Financial Times@FTFT Exclusive: The AI group's annualised revenue is about $20bn less than the company has previously signalled, according to financial documents shared with investors, a massive gap likely to damp optimism about the growth of AI demand. https://ft.trib.al/krV2ZeF2d
    CNBC@CNBCNvidia, Oracle, CoreWeave and other AI stocks sink on OpenAI revenue report https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/08/open-ai-revenue-nvidia-oracle-coreweave.html?taid=6ac7df4f329a7f00017770ea&utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_content=main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter2d
    Luke Gromen@LukeGromenONE OF BIGGEST VARIANT PERCEPTION IN MARKETS IMO: Austerity now won't work either, because we didn't do it in 1987, 1994, 1998, 2000, or 2008 (wasn't an option in 2020 either.) Now, if we do austerity, we trigger not just recession, but debt collapse, banking system collapse, & risk hyperinflation v. gold. Here's the math: Last 3 recessions US saw deficits rise 600-1000 bps of GDP. IE austerity-driven recession would send US deficit to 13-17% of GDP. That's bad enough, but the USD would rise on US austerity... ...which means foreigners, US banks, US pensions, & US hedge funds would be FORCED by stronger USD to sell USTs (as foreigners are short $13-14t in USD-denominated debt, while stronger USD drives weaker growth worldwide)... ....that selling combined would likely add ~$1-2T to the effective deficit, or 4-7% of GDP... So austerity-driven US recession would drive US deficit to (13-17%) + (4-7%) = 17-25% of GDP, or a bigger deficit than WW2... ...into a recession, where there ARE no buyers left but the Fed (recession in a levered system de-grosses savings, it does not grow savings.) So either the Fed funds a 17-25% of GDP US deficit with freshly-printed USDs, or else rates skyrocket...in a recession. Rates skyrocketing would blow up the collateral underpinning the entire western banking system - basically 1q23 on steroids. If that happens, either the Fed does BTFP on steroids (buys the USTs with freshly printed USDs) or we get the biggest US bank run since the Great Depression and banking system collapses, or regulators do away with all bank capital regulations to avoid them taking UST losses (aka Fed QE done through the banks like in Apr-2020 w/SLR exemptions). Rates spiking would also send US govt interest expense > US receipts, which then means either the US govt nominally defaults on those USTs or prints the money just to pay the interest on the debt, which would ALSO undermine the banking system's collateral (AND is a technical definition of hyperinflation). This is why i cannot help but laugh at western investors that sell gold on rising US rates or rising US real rates with the US debt & fiscal situation as it is. I get monthly or quarterly mandate realities, but selling gold on rising US rates or reals show that consensus still does NOT understand the severity of the situation we are in yet.2d
    Oguz Erkan@oguzerkanHere is the problem: If OpenAI can make this much damage to the public market as a private company, think what could happen if OpenAI and Anthropic were both public and both missed expectations? It’s time to rethink about the concentration in the AI trade.2d
    The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetterBREAKING: The Nasdaq 100 extends losses to -1.5% on the day as oil prices rise and OpenAI’s annualized revenue comes in $20 billion below expectations.1d
    Banana3@Banana3Stocks$SPY $QQQ $MRVL $NVDA #OpenAI #Anthropic Today’s selloff is the market taking one messy revenue headline and treating it like the whole AI trade just cracked. It didn’t. The indexes heard “$20 billion light” and sprinted for the exits like someone yelled fire in a data center 🔥 🕋 OpenAI being light by about $20 billion on annualized revenue is a definition problem, not a demand problem!!!‼️ The $70 billion number that was floating around was investors trying to line them up with Anthropic, and those two don’t even count the same way 🤦‍♂️ Most don’t know this unless you know AWS like the back of your hand but Anthropic includes cloud partner sales, OpenAI doesn’t 🧐 What they actually told investors is closer to $50 billion annualized, with their book still ripping! That’s about 77% total run rate growth in the quarter and enterprise run rate up about 107%. Consumer revenue in Q3 alone was already bigger than all of 2025. That’s not a company falling apart. That’s Wall Street doing math on a napkin and then acting shocked when the napkin was wrong and then dumb ass algos running wild🧮 🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️ As I have said, this is not a one size fits all read on the buildout!!! $MRVL just had its investor day and basically told the Street it was sitting in the cheap seats ⚾️. They took FY28 revenue to $20 billion, up from the $18 billion they had out there in August, and above the roughly $18.2 billion most analysts were sitting on. Then they dropped a FY31 framework of $70 to $90 billion in revenue and $30 plus in EPS 🤯 . Custom revenue up 200% or more into FY29 🤯. Data center alone approaching about $18 billion in FY28 🤯 Matt Murphy (MRVL CEO) went on and called the guide “pragmatic, judged and achievable.” Morgan Stanley said the targets were “at least 20% higher than we had forecasted” and that management “guided up next year by about 10%.” Needham took the target to $400 from $300👀. Jefferies went to $450 from $325👀. That’s the inside plumbing of this trade talking, do you hear it??? 👂 That means Interconnect, and optics are going gangbusters 💪 Meanwhile… the indexes are panic selling because one lab’s spreadsheet had a footnote. Classic BS 🤣 We’re still early in the capex boom. And that spend is already starting to show a return because demand for compute is through the roof!!! These guys aren’t building empty buildings and hoping a customer wanders in🤦‍♂️. Capacity is the constraint. Watts, racks, optics, custom silicon. Customers are literally lined up with backlogs growing and growing 🌳 🌳 Enterprise adoption is early innings ⚾️ ⚾️. Most businesses are still poking at pilots like it’s a group project they can turn in late, they’re just figuring it out. The ones that don’t actually adopt this get left behind on cost and speed 🏃 🏃 Consumer agents? We’re not even in the first inning ⚾️!!! That stuff has barely been out for a few months. Judging a multi year infrastructure cycle off one private lab’s run rate definition is how you miss the move and then tweet about it later 📈 Not financial advice! Much love! 💜🍌🍌🍌1d
    Bull Theory@BullTheoryio🚨 $500 billion wiped out from the US stock market today as reports show OpenAI's revenue is $20 billion short, raising doubts over AI spending.1d
    Kalshi Finance@Kalshi_FinanceJUST IN: Over $500,000,000,000 erased from the US stock market today1d
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