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OpenAI’s $50B versus $70B revenue debate and AI infrastructure demand

One post questions how much revenue OpenAI keeps after partners take a cut and argues token growth matters more.

DeedyDE
Brad GerstnerBG
71 Sources, 1d ago, first seen 1d ago

TLDR

Posts citing Financial Times reporting say OpenAI's annualized revenue was nearing $50 billion at the end of September, not the roughly $70 billion investors had circulated after adjusting figures to compare the company with Anthropic. Commentators split on what that means for AI infrastructure, with some arguing one lab's accounting does not change broader demand for chips, networking and power. CNBC reports shares of Nvidia, Oracle and CoreWeave fell after the revenue report.

Combined views

96.9K

71 Sources, first seen 1d ago

761 likes80 comments90 saves41 reposts

Combined views

96.9K

71 Sources, first seen 1d ago

761 likes80 comments90 saves41 reposts

Posts citing Financial Times reporting say OpenAI told investors its annualized revenue was approaching $50 billion at the end of September, about $20 billion below a figure that had circulated a month earlier. The summaries attribute the gap to different treatment of partner revenue.

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A detailed account says investors adjusted OpenAI's July figure of about $30 billion upward to include estimated cloud-partner sales, making it easier to compare with Anthropic. They then applied OpenAI's reported growth rate to that adjusted base, arriving near $70 billion. The same post says the company's own September figure was just under $50 billion, still about $20 billion above July.

Two ways to count partner sales

The FT recap says Anthropic includes sales through AWS and Google Cloud while OpenAI does not. Another account of CNBC's reporting says the higher figure included revenue sharing from large partners, while the lower figure excluded those deals.

Those accounts describe different reporting scopes rather than two directly comparable measurements. OpenAI declined to comment to the Financial Times, according to the FT recap.

Why infrastructure investors care

The lower figure became part of a broader debate about AI spending. One market commentary argued that aggregate token growth matters more for data-center demand because chips, memory, networking and power can be used across several labs and enterprises. Other posts blamed the revenue headline for weakness in AI-linked stocks, but those are market interpretations rather than proof that one report caused the move.

The accounting dispute leaves OpenAI's exact comparable run rate contested in public discussion. It does not, on its own, settle how much demand the wider AI buildout will create.

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71 Sources

Wall St Engine@wallstengineOPENAI'S ANNUALIZED REVENUE NEARS $50B, BELOW EARLIER $70B REPORTS: FT OpenAI recently told investors its annualized revenue was approaching $50B at the end of September, roughly $20B below the figure widely reported last month. The discrepancy reportedly stems from differences in how OpenAI and Anthropic calculate revenue. Anthropic includes sales through cloud partners such as AWS and Google Cloud, while OpenAI does not. Investors had attempted to adjust OpenAI's figures to make them comparable with Anthropic's, contributing to the previously reported $70B estimate. OpenAI declined to comment. Source: Financial Times.1d
Chubby♨️@kimmonismusOpenAI’s annualised revenue was approaching $50 billion at the end of September, rather than the previously reported $70 billion, according to the FT. "According to a person with knowledge of the matter, the discrepancy arose from attempts by OpenAI’s own investors to produce a direct comparison with Anthropic’s annualised revenues." Right now, it is not good for OpenAI to compare itself with Anthropic.1d
Lisan al Gaib@scaling01RT @wallstengine: OPENAI'S ANNUALIZED REVENUE NEARS $50B, BELOW EARLIER $70B REPORTS: FT OpenAI recently told investors its annualized rev…1d
SemiAnalysis@SemiAnalysis_When does OpenAI launch an agent swarm for a lean proof on their actual annualized recurring revenue?1d
Trade Whisperer@TradexWhispererThis is why the market tanked around 12:47 pm ET. @OpenAI revenue "miss." $20B below what was "signaled." Misleading signals and Misleading news if you ask me. Meanwhile token usage is going exponential.1d
Shay Boloor@StockSavvyShayThe OpenAI $50B versus $70B revenue debate is hilarious because real question is how much of every AI dollar OpenAI actually keeps after $MSFT, $AMZN and $GOOGL take their cut. For the AI buildout almost nothing changes because those GPUs, memory, networking and power can shift across Anthropic, $META, $GOOGL, $SPCX and enterprises so aggregate token growth matters way more than one AI lab’s revenue number.1d
Minh Nhat Nguyen 🦭@menhguinfor several reasons, they're calling this move the Tibo Reset.1d
tae kim@firstadopterRe: FT OpenAI headline chaos. CNBC just reported on air, according to a source familar: $70 billion ARR includes "revenue sharing from their big partners" (think AMZN, MSFT). "The way that they [OpenAI] have been reporting revenue has included some of these partnership deals" The $50 billion ARR figure strips out those partnership deals.1d
Deedy@deedydasOpenAI tells investors their annualized revenue is $50B for end of September, up from $30B in July, short of the $70B previously reported. Anthropic was at $65B annualized end of July.1d
high cagr@HiCagrNot worried about OpenAI’s ARR. Approaching $50B at end September is net vs. gross. We also know OpenAI excludes cloud-partner revenue Anthropic counts so investors marked the number up to force comparison. Sales didn’t fall $20B and not to mention $50B is still ~2.5x the ~$20B run rate at EOY25 on the capacity that’s already online. $60B+ blended revenue per GW on 10-12 GW of dedicated inference is how you get to $600B+ combined lab ARR by EOY27. That capacity is NOT built yet. Zephyr is right, the next leg will absolutely be agents that stay on for weeks. Then Bel/model 3 class models taking a cut of global R&D spend. So no I’m not really worried about OpenAI ARR today. Demand hasn’t even neared what it will be for enterprise, SMBs, and the regular consumer.1d
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    71 Sources

    Wall St Engine@wallstengineOPENAI'S ANNUALIZED REVENUE NEARS $50B, BELOW EARLIER $70B REPORTS: FT OpenAI recently told investors its annualized revenue was approaching $50B at the end of September, roughly $20B below the figure widely reported last month. The discrepancy reportedly stems from differences in how OpenAI and Anthropic calculate revenue. Anthropic includes sales through cloud partners such as AWS and Google Cloud, while OpenAI does not. Investors had attempted to adjust OpenAI's figures to make them comparable with Anthropic's, contributing to the previously reported $70B estimate. OpenAI declined to comment. Source: Financial Times.1d
    Chubby♨️@kimmonismusOpenAI’s annualised revenue was approaching $50 billion at the end of September, rather than the previously reported $70 billion, according to the FT. "According to a person with knowledge of the matter, the discrepancy arose from attempts by OpenAI’s own investors to produce a direct comparison with Anthropic’s annualised revenues." Right now, it is not good for OpenAI to compare itself with Anthropic.1d
    Lisan al Gaib@scaling01RT @wallstengine: OPENAI'S ANNUALIZED REVENUE NEARS $50B, BELOW EARLIER $70B REPORTS: FT OpenAI recently told investors its annualized rev…1d
    SemiAnalysis@SemiAnalysis_When does OpenAI launch an agent swarm for a lean proof on their actual annualized recurring revenue?1d
    Trade Whisperer@TradexWhispererThis is why the market tanked around 12:47 pm ET. @OpenAI revenue "miss." $20B below what was "signaled." Misleading signals and Misleading news if you ask me. Meanwhile token usage is going exponential.1d
    Shay Boloor@StockSavvyShayThe OpenAI $50B versus $70B revenue debate is hilarious because real question is how much of every AI dollar OpenAI actually keeps after $MSFT, $AMZN and $GOOGL take their cut. For the AI buildout almost nothing changes because those GPUs, memory, networking and power can shift across Anthropic, $META, $GOOGL, $SPCX and enterprises so aggregate token growth matters way more than one AI lab’s revenue number.1d
    Minh Nhat Nguyen 🦭@menhguinfor several reasons, they're calling this move the Tibo Reset.1d
    tae kim@firstadopterRe: FT OpenAI headline chaos. CNBC just reported on air, according to a source familar: $70 billion ARR includes "revenue sharing from their big partners" (think AMZN, MSFT). "The way that they [OpenAI] have been reporting revenue has included some of these partnership deals" The $50 billion ARR figure strips out those partnership deals.1d
    Deedy@deedydasOpenAI tells investors their annualized revenue is $50B for end of September, up from $30B in July, short of the $70B previously reported. Anthropic was at $65B annualized end of July.1d
    high cagr@HiCagrNot worried about OpenAI’s ARR. Approaching $50B at end September is net vs. gross. We also know OpenAI excludes cloud-partner revenue Anthropic counts so investors marked the number up to force comparison. Sales didn’t fall $20B and not to mention $50B is still ~2.5x the ~$20B run rate at EOY25 on the capacity that’s already online. $60B+ blended revenue per GW on 10-12 GW of dedicated inference is how you get to $600B+ combined lab ARR by EOY27. That capacity is NOT built yet. Zephyr is right, the next leg will absolutely be agents that stay on for weeks. Then Bel/model 3 class models taking a cut of global R&D spend. So no I’m not really worried about OpenAI ARR today. Demand hasn’t even neared what it will be for enterprise, SMBs, and the regular consumer.1d
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